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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>Mar C. Espadafor</title>
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<a class="wordmark" href="index.html">mar c. espadafor</a>
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<h1>How can we reduce inequality through research <em>and</em> policy?</h1>
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<a class="btn btn--solid" href="#about">About me</a>
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<div class="ticker" aria-hidden="true"><div class="ticker__track"><span>Foresight</span><span>Indicators</span><span>Future of Work</span><span>Educational Inequalities</span><span>Social Stratification</span><span>Causal Inference</span><span>Public Policy</span></div><div class="ticker__track"><span>Foresight</span><span>Indicators</span><span>Future of Work</span><span>Educational Inequalities</span><span>Social Stratification</span><span>Causal Inference</span><span>Public Policy</span></div></div>
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<ul class="idcard__list"><li><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 2a7 7 0 0 0-7 7c0 5.1 6.2 12.3 6.5 12.6a.7.7 0 0 0 1 0C12.8 21.3 19 14.1 19 9a7 7 0 0 0-7-7zm0 9.6A2.6 2.6 0 1 1 12 6.4a2.6 2.6 0 0 1 0 5.2z"/></svg><span>Madrid, Spain</span></li><li><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 2 1.5 7.3V9h21V7.3L12 2zM4 10.5v7H2v2h20v-2h-2v-7h-2.5v7h-2.2v-7h-2.6v7h-2.4v-7H6.5v7H4v-7z"/></svg><span>Presidency of the Government of Spain</span></li><li><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M20 4H4a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v12a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V6a2 2 0 0 0-2-2zm0 4.2-8 4.8-8-4.8V6l8 4.8L20 6v2.2z"/></svg><a href="mailto:mdmcanizares@gmail.com">Email</a></li></ul>
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<div class="about__text">
<span class="mono about__label">About</span>
<p class="about__statement">I work at the intersection of <strong>inequality research</strong> and <strong>strategic foresight</strong> — using causal designs to find where advantage is transmitted, and building the data and scenarios that let institutions act before it consolidates.</p>
<p class="about__origin">From Almería, one of the <a href="https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-hours-Sunshine,almeria-andalucia-es,Spain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sunniest cities</a> in Europe.</p>
<p class="about__cv">You can read more about me here
<a class="cvlink" href="#more-about">More about me <span aria-hidden="true">↓</span></a>
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<div class="wrap" id="more-about">
<div class="rail acards"><article class="acard"><span class="mono acard__k">Now</span><p><strong>Deputy Director at the Directorate for Public Policy, Presidency of the Government of Spain.</strong> I coordinate a cross-ministerial team and lead the analytical work behind priority reforms: the 2026 extraordinary regularisation, the Plan de Integración y Ciudadanía, and the organic law on the protection of minors in digital environments.</p></article><article class="acard"><span class="mono acard__k">Before</span><p><strong>Senior Policy Analyst at the National Office of Foresight & Strategy</strong>, where I built the two instruments that now power my research: <a href="https://generacionesdelfuturo.csic.es/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Generaciones del Futuro</em></a>, <a href="https://futuros.gob.es/en/our-work" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HispanIA 2040</a>.</p></article><article class="acard"><span class="mono acard__k">Trained</span><p><strong>PhD in Political and Social Sciences at the European University Institute (2023)</strong>, with Fabrizio Bernardi. Postdoc at UNED within <a href="https://mapineq.eu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MapIneq</a>, Research Fellow at INVEST (Turku), Visiting Scholar at Wisconsin–Madison. I teach causal inference at <a href="https://www.upf.edu/web/recsm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RECSM (UPF)</a> every summer.</p></article></div>
<p class="rail__hint mono">Scroll for more →</p>
<p class="about__cv">You can see my full CV here
<a class="cvlink" href="CV-CanizaresEspadafor.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CV (PDF) <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a>
</p>
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</section>
<section class="band band--grad">
<div class="wrap">
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<div>
<span class="mono band__kicker">Latest</span>
<h2>Recent publications</h2>
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<a class="btn" href="publications.html">All publications</a>
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<article class="card reveal" id="expansion">
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<div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--edu">Education</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
<h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaf003" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The intergenerational effect of educational expansion: evidence from a natural experiment in Spain</a></h3>
<p class="card__authors"><b>Espadafor, M. C.</b> & García-Sierra, A.</p>
<p class="card__venue">European Sociological Review</p>
<div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaf003" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card reveal" id="teacher-bias">
<div class="card__body">
<div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--edu">Education</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
<h3><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X25000389" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Teacher bias by student SES or measurement error in ability? A cautionary tale for observational studies</a></h3>
<p class="card__authors">Gil-Hernández, C. J. & <b>Espadafor, M. C.</b></p>
<p class="card__venue">Social Science Research</p>
<div class="card__links"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X25000389" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article</a></div>
</div>
</article>
<article class="card reveal" id="lez">
<div class="card__body">
<div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--inst">Institutions</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
<h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00477-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Can a low emission zone improve academic performance? Evidence from a natural experiment in the city of Madrid</a></h3>
<p class="card__authors">Valdés, M. T., <b>Espadafor, M. C.</b> & Conte Keivabu, R.</p>
<p class="card__venue">Population & Environment, 47</p>
<div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00477-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
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<p class="rail__hint mono">Scroll for more →</p>
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<div class="areas" id="research">
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<span class="area__num">01 <span aria-hidden="true">↘</span></span>
<span class="mono area__of">Research area 01 / 04</span>
</div>
<div class="area__mid">
<h2>Educational inequalities</h2>
<p class="area__lede">Family origin still shapes who makes it through school — but not everywhere, and rarely through the channels we assume. I use causal designs to locate the moments at which education systems either transmit advantage or interrupt it.</p>
</div>
<div class="area__work">
<span class="mono area__work-label">Selected work</span>
<div class="rail wcards"><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#expansion">The intergenerational effect of educational expansion</a></h4>
<p class="mono"><i>European Sociological Review</i>, 2025</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#teacher-bias">Teacher bias or measurement error in ability?</a></h4>
<p class="mono"><i>Social Science Research</i>, 2025</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#thesis">Selection or moderation? Three essays on educational inequalities</a></h4>
<p class="mono">European University Institute, 2023</p>
</article></div>
<p class="area__more"><a class="cvlink" href="publications.html">Read more here <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a></p>
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<div class="area__top">
<span class="area__num">02 <span aria-hidden="true">↘</span></span>
<span class="mono area__of">Research area 02 / 04</span>
</div>
<div class="area__mid">
<h2>Work & labour markets</h2>
<p class="area__lede">Automation, AI and credential rules are redrawing who works, at what, and for how much. I study who is exposed to that restructuring at labour-market entry, and for whom exposure turns into a wage or mobility penalty.</p>
</div>
<div class="area__work">
<span class="mono area__work-label">Selected work</span>
<div class="rail wcards"><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="projects.html#selectivity">Selectivity and risks across educational transitions in Europe</a></h4>
<p class="mono">MapIneq Working Paper D3.3</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="projects.html#mothers">Educational reforms, mothers’ occupation-specific skills and children’s outcomes</a></h4>
<p class="mono">In preparation</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="projects.html#ai">AI, task restructuring and stratification</a></h4>
<p class="mono">Forthcoming line of research</p>
</article></div>
<p class="area__more"><a class="cvlink" href="projects.html">Read more here <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a></p>
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<span class="area__num">03 <span aria-hidden="true">↘</span></span>
<span class="mono area__of">Research area 03 / 04</span>
</div>
<div class="area__mid">
<h2>Institutions & public policy</h2>
<p class="area__lede">Welfare states, school systems, cities and legal status are the machinery that distributes opportunity. I work on both sides of the evidence: producing it, and using it inside the Presidency of the Government of Spain.</p>
</div>
<div class="area__work">
<span class="mono area__work-label">Selected work</span>
<div class="rail wcards"><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#lez">Can a low emission zone improve academic performance?</a></h4>
<p class="mono"><i>Population & Environment</i>, 2025</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#betting">Sports gambling opportunities and human capital formation</a></h4>
<p class="mono"><i>PLOS ONE</i>, 2021</p>
</article><article class="wcard">
<h4><a href="publications.html#chapter">Desigualdad, pobreza y casas de apuestas</a></h4>
<p class="mono">In <i>La desigualdad en España</i>, Lengua de Trapo, 2024</p>
</article></div>
<p class="area__more"><a class="cvlink" href="publications.html">Read more here <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a></p>
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<div class="area__top">
<span class="area__num">04 <span aria-hidden="true">↘</span></span>
<span class="mono area__of">Research area 04 / 04</span>
</div>
<div class="area__mid">
<h2>Foresight & indicators</h2>
<p class="area__lede">Inequality that is not measured cannot be governed. I build the cohort data, the indicators and the scenarios that let institutions see inequality forming — years before it shows up in the outcomes we usually track.</p>
</div>
<div class="forthcoming">
<p class="forthcoming__word" aria-label="FORTHCOMING"><span>F</span><span>O</span><span>R</span><span>T</span><span>H</span><span>C</span><span>O</span><span>M</span><span>I</span><span>N</span><span>G</span><i class="forthcoming__caret" aria-hidden="true"></i></p>
<ul class="forthcoming__list"><li>EPOCH-ES, released as an open dataset</li><li>A listening pipeline for administrative processes</li><li>New ways of building country indicators</li></ul>
<a class="forthcoming__cta" href="projects.html">See what is coming <span aria-hidden="true">↗</span></a>
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