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      <span class="mono">Peer-reviewed</span>
      <h1>Publications</h1>
      <p>Work on educational expansion, measurement, environmental policy and human capital. If you cannot access any of the papers below, email me — I will happily send a copy.</p>

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      <h2 class="year-head">2025</h2>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="expansion">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--edu">Education</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaf003" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The intergenerational effect of educational expansion: evidence from a natural experiment in Spain</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors"><b>Espadafor, M. C.</b> &amp; García-Sierra, A.</p>
            <p class="card__venue">European Sociological Review</p>
            <p class="card__excerpt">Spain's 1970 reform, which raised the compulsory school-leaving age from 12 to 14, as an instrument for parental education. Each additional parental year raises children's upper-secondary attainment by 10 percentage points — but the compliers are the mildly disadvantaged, not the poorest, which is why overall equality did not move.</p>
            <p class="card__metrics mono">JIF 3.0 · Q1 Sociology</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaf003" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="teacher-bias">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--edu">Education</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X25000389" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Teacher bias by student SES or measurement error in ability? A cautionary tale for observational studies</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors">Gil-Hernández, C. J. &amp; <b>Espadafor, M. C.</b></p>
            <p class="card__venue">Social Science Research</p>
            <p class="card__excerpt">Residual teacher bias by family background shrinks substantially once ability is measured with repeated low-stakes tests rather than a noisy snapshot. What survives sits on low-performing high-SES students: compensation through evaluations, not blanket favouritism.</p>
            <p class="card__metrics mono">JIF 3.5 · Q1 Sociology</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X25000389" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article</a></div>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="lez">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--inst">Institutions</span><span class="card__year">2025</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00477-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Can a low emission zone improve academic performance? Evidence from a natural experiment in the city of Madrid</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors">Valdés, M. T., <b>Espadafor, M. C.</b> &amp; Conte Keivabu, R.</p>
            <p class="card__venue">Population &amp; Environment, 47</p>
            <p class="card__excerpt">Madrid Central as a natural experiment on university-entrance scores, 2015–2022, with difference-in-differences, synthetic DiD and an event study. The zone raised scores; NO₂ fell where scores rose, and school intake stayed stable across the boundary.</p>
            <p class="card__metrics mono">JIF 2.5 · Q1 Environmental Studies</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-025-00477-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
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      <h2 class="year-head">2023</h2>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="thesis">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--edu">Education</span><span class="card__year">2023</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/75444" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Selection or moderation? Three essays on educational inequalities</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors"><b>Espadafor, M. C.</b></p>
            <p class="card__venue">Doctoral thesis, European University Institute</p>
            <p class="card__excerpt">Three shocks, one engine: grade retention in Spain, boyhood in the United Kingdom, school entry age in Germany. Each chapter asks whether exposure is socially stratified and whether the penalty is absorbed unequally — and the German chapter reports the honest null that gives the framework its boundaries.</p>
            <p class="card__metrics mono">Supervisor: Fabrizio Bernardi</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/75444" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cadmus</a></div>
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      <h2 class="year-head">2022</h2>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="terrorism">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--plain">Conflict</span><span class="card__year">2022</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1678877" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Unexpected allies: the impact of terrorism on organised crime in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors">Kreiman, G. &amp; <b>Espadafor, M. C.</b></p>
            <p class="card__venue">Studies in Conflict &amp; Terrorism, 45(5–6), 348–370</p>

            <p class="card__metrics mono">Equal authorship · Q2</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1678877" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
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      <h2 class="year-head">2021</h2>
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        <article class="card reveal" id="betting">
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            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--inst">Institutions</span><span class="card__year">2021</span></div>
            <h3><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258857" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The negative consequences of sports gambling opportunities on human capital formation: evidence from Spain</a></h3>
            <p class="card__authors"><b>Espadafor, M.</b> &amp; Martínez, S.</p>
            <p class="card__venue">PLOS ONE, 16(10), e0258857</p>
            <p class="card__excerpt">An original geolocated panel of Madrid high schools and betting-shop openings. Proximity lowers performance, cafés show no such effect, and public schools in poorer areas are hit hardest — an environmental exposure that widens inequality of opportunity.</p>
            <p class="card__metrics mono">Equal authorship · JIF 2.6</p>
            <div class="card__links"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258857" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DOI</a></div>
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      <h2 class="year-head">2024 · Book chapter</h2>
      <div class="grid">
        <article class="card reveal" id="chapter">
          <div class="card__body">
            <div class="card__meta"><span class="chip chip--inst">Book chapter</span><span class="card__year">2024</span></div>
            <h3>Desigualdad, pobreza y casas de apuestas</h3>
            <p class="card__authors"><b>Espadafor, M. C.</b> &amp; Martínez, S.</p>
            <p class="card__venue">In <i>La desigualdad en España</i>. Lengua de Trapo</p>
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          <span class="mono band__kicker">Coverage</span>
          <h2>In the press</h2>
          <p>The betting-shop paper travelled beyond academia and into regulation debates, in Spain and abroad.</p>
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      <div class="rail press"><a class="pbub" href="https://www.eldiario.es" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="pbub__name">elDiario.es</span><span class="mono pbub__where">Spain</span></a><a class="pbub" href="https://cadenaser.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="pbub__name">Cadena SER</span><span class="mono pbub__where">Spain</span></a><a class="pbub" href="https://www.rtve.es" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="pbub__name">RTVE</span><span class="mono pbub__where">Spain</span></a><a class="pbub" href="https://www.greo.ca" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="pbub__name">GREO</span><span class="mono pbub__where">Canada</span></a><span class="pbub pbub--flat"><span class="pbub__name">Massachusetts Gaming Association</span><span class="mono pbub__where">United States</span></span></div>
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