[Refactor]: release: detect manual version bumps as a publish trigger

[martyy-code]

Current State

The release pipeline in .github/workflows/release.yml triggers a publish only when the merge into main introduces at least one .changeset/*.md file. The detector uses a grep on HEAD~1 HEAD.

This forces the release engineer to leave .changeset/.md unconsumed in the release branch. If the changesets were already consumed locally (pnpm changeset version edited package.json and CHANGELOG.md, and removed the .changeset/.md files), the merge contains no changesets and the workflow becomes a no-op.

Located in: .github/workflows/release.yml step Detect pending changesets.

Problems with current implementation:

• The detector misses the documented consume-then-merge flow.
• A second patch bump is forced when recovery is attempted via a post-merge changeset, breaking the planned version number.
• The 1.3.0 release shipped as 1.3.2 because of this.

Proposed State

Accept a manual version bump as a publish trigger, in addition to a fresh .changeset/*.md. Change the detector to:

• name: Detect pending changesets
  id: detect
  echo "has_changesets=true" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
  else
  echo "has_changesets=false" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
  fi

Expected improvements:

• Recovery path for accidental no-op merges.
• No forced extra patch bump on the next release.
• Removes the need for an artificial .changeset/*.md post-merge.

Motivation

Every release that consumes changesets locally becomes a debugging session. Future releases will keep derailing the version number unless the detector is fixed.

Risks

• Risk 1: a package.json diff could trigger publish for unrelated reasons.
• Mitigation: add a second check on "version": field change.
• Risk 2: combined condition could fire twice for the same release.
• Mitigation: skip publish when latest tag matches the current version.
• Risk 3: hardcoded path to packages/errors may break as monorepo grows.
• Mitigation: parametrize via workflow input or pnpm changeset status --json.

Migration Plan

1. Open a PR fix/release-detect-manual-bumps.
2. Update Detect pending changesets to use the combined regex.
3. Add the version-bump-dedup guard at the top of Publish packages.
4. Test with workflow_dispatch on a throwaway branch.

Rollback plan: revert the PR.

Backward Compatibility

• This refactoring maintains full backward compatibility

Scope

Files/folders affected:

• .github/workflows/release.yml

Out of scope:

• .changeset configuration.
• The release engineer runbook (covered by a follow-up docs issue).

Component(s) Affected

• .github/workflows - CI/CD GitHub Actions

Priority

p1: High

Estimated Effort

effort: s - Half a day

Test Coverage Requirements

• Existing tests cover this code area (will update)

Verification: workflow_dispatch on test branches mimicking both shapes (changeset present vs version bumped).

Testing Approach

1. Create test/manual-bump-detect off main.
2. Cherry-pick one feature commit, run pnpm changeset version locally, commit the bump.
3. Open a PR, observe CI.
4. Merge. Release workflow should publish.
5. Revert. Repeat with no-changeset, no-version-bump PR. Should no-op cleanly.

Related Issues / Pull Requests

• Related issue: companion bug "release: signal when workflow is a no-op" (proposed in the same session).
• Related PR: chore(release): 1.3.0 #52 (release/1.3.0), fix(release): remove unsupported --packages flag from changeset publish #53.

Relevant Documentation

• docs/internal/engineering/plans/release-system.md
• docs/internal/engineering/process/releasing-a-new-version.md
• .github/workflows/release.yml

Pre-Submission Checklist

• Searched existing issues for related refactoring requests
• Risks and migration plan documented
• Test coverage approach defined
• Will be labeled according to project taxonomy